The South Island Alpine Fault (AF8) represents one of New Zealand’s highest-consequence natural hazards. While earthquakes cannot be precisely predicted, scientific research indicates a 75% probability of a major Alpine Fault earthquake in the next 50 years, with a 4 in 5 chance it will exceed magnitude 8. The AF8 Programme brings together science, emergency management, and communities across Te Waipounamu to plan and prepare for this event — raising awareness of risk, coordinating intelligence, and strengthening collaborative networks to improve readiness and response capability.

A catastrophic Alpine Fault earthquake will significantly challenge Emergency Management systems across Aotearoa. AF8 and their partners have developed novel initiatives technology and improved systems to better understand impacts and coordinate intelligence to enhance both readiness and response.

Central to this approach is the Research & Readiness Hub — a platform designed to translate complex research into practical tools for emergency management. Behind the hub sits a secure ecosystem of intelligence coordination, information-sharing, and data governance systems, providing a trusted environment for emergency managers and partners to ensure plans are robust, aligned, and actionable.

Agent-based modelling (ABM) underpins research into household-level impacts, while analysis of seasonal and spatial population movements across Te Waipounamu assesses transient population effects over time and place. These intelligence-rich datasets have required integrated systems capable of converting research into operational insight.

In this presentation, the AF8 team will demonstrate how harnessing advanced modelling, digital collaboration platforms, and coordinated intelligence systems is enabling more informed planning and decision-making to strengthen preparedness for a catastrophic Alpine Fault event.