The Geostrategic Implications of Climate Security for Australia and the Region
| Thursday, July 24, 2025 |
| 8:45 AM - 8:55 AM |
| Trinity Room |
Overview
Isabelle Bond, Analyst, Climate and Security Policy Centre, ASPI
Speaker
Isabelle Bond
Analyst
Climate and Security Policy Centre, ASPI
The Geostrategic Implications of Climate Security for Australia and the Region
Presentation Overview
- Climate change threat multiplier/ exacerbator
- Strain underlying fabric of societies/social cohesion
- Compounds/ cascades/concurrency:
> Undermine ability to rebuild and recover from impacts
> Raising costs of insurance/taxes
> exposing vulnerabilities in supply chains/ infrastructure/ cannibalising spending from other services such as health care and education
> decreasing government's ability to respond = costs to society will increase and become increasingly unacceptable = dissatisfaction and political instability will grow
- Currently 'betting' on best case scenarios
> World may have already breached the Paris Agreement's aspirational 1.5C threshold - June 2024 marked first time that global mean surface temperatures reached 1.5 of warming for 12 consecutive months = reality continues to outstrip scientific expectation
> Climate model projections possess critical blind spots as, for example, positive feedback loops are currently too complex to be fully integrated = not accounted for in projections
> This is concerning because:
1) This is at odds with how other security issues are approached e.g. the risk of nuclear escalation/ Taiwan Straight Crisis not analysed from angle of best case
2) Majority of climate impact research undertaken in last 10 years is focused on temperature rises of 2 degrees - although world on track to warm by above 3.
- Opportunity: in Australia's regional strategy
> Climate change consistently identified as the foremost security issue for the Pacific Island region
> Pacific islands = crucial to Australia's National Defence Strategy (for strategy of deterrence by denial)
>> seek to maintain these relationships through traditional security arrangements
>> Australia remains one of largest GHG emitters on per capita basis = how can we expect Australia to be partner of choice?
>> China's domination in renewable energy transition - likely to win favor = gap in west's regional strategy (particularly amidst US retreat)
- Strain underlying fabric of societies/social cohesion
- Compounds/ cascades/concurrency:
> Undermine ability to rebuild and recover from impacts
> Raising costs of insurance/taxes
> exposing vulnerabilities in supply chains/ infrastructure/ cannibalising spending from other services such as health care and education
> decreasing government's ability to respond = costs to society will increase and become increasingly unacceptable = dissatisfaction and political instability will grow
- Currently 'betting' on best case scenarios
> World may have already breached the Paris Agreement's aspirational 1.5C threshold - June 2024 marked first time that global mean surface temperatures reached 1.5 of warming for 12 consecutive months = reality continues to outstrip scientific expectation
> Climate model projections possess critical blind spots as, for example, positive feedback loops are currently too complex to be fully integrated = not accounted for in projections
> This is concerning because:
1) This is at odds with how other security issues are approached e.g. the risk of nuclear escalation/ Taiwan Straight Crisis not analysed from angle of best case
2) Majority of climate impact research undertaken in last 10 years is focused on temperature rises of 2 degrees - although world on track to warm by above 3.
- Opportunity: in Australia's regional strategy
> Climate change consistently identified as the foremost security issue for the Pacific Island region
> Pacific islands = crucial to Australia's National Defence Strategy (for strategy of deterrence by denial)
>> seek to maintain these relationships through traditional security arrangements
>> Australia remains one of largest GHG emitters on per capita basis = how can we expect Australia to be partner of choice?
>> China's domination in renewable energy transition - likely to win favor = gap in west's regional strategy (particularly amidst US retreat)
Biography
Isabelle Bond is a Climate Security Analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Climate and Security Policy Centre. She is also a Research Associate of the Climate Change and (In)Security Project – a joint initiative between the University of Oxford and the British Army’s Centre for Historical and Armed Conflict Research.
She is a casual lecturer at NSC and has previously held positions within the Australian Government as an International Policy Officer with the Department of Defence, and on the investigations team at the Clean Energy Regulator.
